WASHINGTON, DC-US voters will deliver their verdict on Nov. 3 on President Donald Trump’s first 21 months in his second term, marked by economic upheavals stemming from his tariffs and the conflict with Iran, which have affected consumers in the US and people around the world.

Polls point to the Democratic Party taking control of the House of Representatives, while the outcome in the Senate remains uncertain amid last-minute turmoil within the party.

Trump appeared resigned on November 2 to the possibility that Republicans could fare poorly in the midterm elections, as several polls have indicated.

At his final rally he said: “For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms, but we gave this a very strong shot.”

Trump campaigned extensively, holding 30 rallies across 20 states in 32 days. According to the White House, he cancelled a rally in Michigan to attend his final campaign meeting in Washington.

Speaking in front of the Washington Reflecting Pool, Trump denounced Democrats as “communists” and “jihadists and Muslim Brotherhood members” who would “blow up” his achievements. Using images of his efforts to improve the capital, he devoted much of his speech to its beautification, with little mention of the economic issues weighing on voters.

Polls indicate a significant slide in Trump’s support. He won the 2024 presidential election with 49.8 per cent of the vote, but the RealClear Politics (RCP) average of polls now puts support for Democrats in congressional elections at 52.1 per cent.

According to the RCP average, Trump’s job approval rating has fallen from 50.3 per cent in the first week of his second term to 39.1 per cent, while his disapproval rating has risen to 58.8 per cent.

The midterm elections will test whether Trump can retain the support of his core voters and others who helped elect him, amid growing concerns over affordability, a term increasingly used to describe public distress over rising prices.

Although the US economy grew by 3.4 per cent in the latest quarter, a performance economists consider strong, inflation stood at 3.7 per cent in September. The impact has been particularly evident in the prices of food and other everyday consumer goods.

The pressure has been compounded by tariffs imposed by Trump on imports and a surge in petrol and diesel prices amid the conflict with Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Of the roughly 174 million eligible voters, 57 million had already cast their ballots by mail or at early voting centers by the evening of Nov. 2. The remaining voters will have their say on Nov. 3.

According to NBC  News tracking, 46 per cent of early voters registered along party lines were Democrats, compared with 39 per cent who were Republicans. In the US, citizens can register with a political party to vote in its primaries, which determine the candidates representing it in elections.

Trump will need a strong turnout among his supporters on Nov. 3 to counter the early voting trend.

Three election analyses by RCP, CBS News and the Cook Political Report (CPR) forecast a Democratic majority in the 435-member House of Representatives. Their projections range from at least 222 seats for Democrats, according to CPR, to 229, according to CBS News, and 227, according to RCP.

Trump’s best chance of avoiding a broader Republican setback lies in the Senate races, which most polls and election analyses classify as too close to call.

However, The New York Times’ latest Senate poll, published on Nov. 1, showed Democrats leading in six of the seven key races that could determine control of the chamber, with comfortable margins in most of them.

Democrats face three controversies that could complicate their bid to take control of the 100-member Senate, where they currently hold 47 seats.

One emerged in Michigan, where Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost the Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, announced on November 1 that she would support Republican candidate Mike Rogers.

The Michigan seat is currently held by a Democrat. Stevens, who has been feuding with El-Sayed, stunned her party with the endorsement. The move followed her exclusion from a conciliatory meeting at a church and an advertisement by a group supporting El-Sayed that blamed Israel for rising prices of everyday goods.

In Alaska, Democrats have been accused of placing an independent candidate with a name similar to that of Republican candidate Dan Stevens on the ballot, potentially confusing voters. The independent candidate’s name differs only by a middle initial.

A judge dismissed a case filed by the Trump administration seeking to block the election if the Republican candidate lost. The dispute could lead to further appeals and legal challenges if he is defeated.

Democrats also faced difficulties in Maine, where their original Senate candidate withdrew amid allegations of sexual misconduct. The party had to find a replacement to contest the seat against moderate Republican Susan Collins, a 30-year Senate veteran seeking a sixth term.

Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, under which voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives at least 50 per cent of first-choice votes, the lowest-ranked candidates are eliminated and their votes redistributed according to voters’ next preferences. (IANS)